Crowd-Pleaser 'I Play Rocky' Shakes Up Oscar Race After TIFF

Peter Farrelly's film I Play Rocky premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival this weekend and is now being discussed as a potential Oscar contender. The film's initial audience reactions position it as a crowd-pleaser, a narrative that can be key during awards season.

Many observers, including the writer at Awards Daily, had previously dismissed the film's prospects. This skepticism stemmed from the industry's perceived reaction to Farrelly's earlier Oscar winner, Green Book. Despite some mixed critical reviews, the Toronto response suggests the film about the creation of the Rocky franchise has found an audience.

It is too early to gauge its final awards trajectory. However, categories like Best Picture, acting, screenplay, and film editing are now considered possibilities. Its fate may hinge on whether it wins the TIFF Audience Award, which will be announced in a week.

Other films generating talk at Toronto include Chris Rock's Misty Green, which is seen as a shows for Rosalind Eleazar's performance. Susanna White's Prima Facie has yet to premiere at the festival.

The Best Picture Landscape

The current Best Picture race appears defined by films with mass appeal, though critical favorites remain in play. According to the analysis, major contenders include Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, Clive Barker's Obsession, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's Project Hail Mary, Farrelly's I Play Rocky, and Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Three.

These are films that "bring people to the theaters" and signal a potential comeback for the industry. The importance of the "crowd-pleaser narrative" is noted as a significant factor.

Updated Oscar Predictions

Awards Daily has issued updated Oscar predictions for the week of September 14, 2026. Several changes were made based on festival developments and shifting momentum.

Olivia Wilde has been added to the Best Actress lineup for The Invite, replacing Juliette Binoche for Queen At Sea. Due to uncertainty over its source material, I Play Rocky is currently left out of both screenplay categories. The film is, however, predicted for Best Film Editing.

Other changes include adding Ray Gunn to Animated Feature over Forgotten Island and placing the documentary NAZA in the top slot for its category. Hope replaces Disclosure Day in the Best Sound predictions.

Key Category Forecasts

The predictions list frontrunners and alternates across all major Oscar categories. Below is a selection of the top five predicted nominees in several major races.

I Play Rocky is listed as the first alternate for Best Picture. The film also appears in the fifth slot for Best Film Editing, behind The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball), and Project Hail Mary.

In the supporting categories, Paul Giamatti (The Debut) and Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) lead the predictions. Penélope Cruz is predicted twice in Supporting Actress, for La Bola Negra (The Black Ball) and The Invite.

Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey dominates the craft category predictions, leading in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound, and Score. It is also a top contender in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects.

The full slate of predictions will be tested as the festival season continues, with the TIFF awards providing the next major data point.